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锂盐价格回落,为何锂矿“火拼”再现?

2022-05-20

 The price of lithium salt has fallen, why is the "rhythm" of lithium mines reappearing? (behind the article)


1亿元、2亿元、3亿元、4亿元、5亿元……“火拼”锂矿再现。近期刚刚回落一段时间的锂盐价格,或有变数。


  根据相关公告,成都兴能新材料股份有限公司持有的雅江县斯诺威矿业的54.2857%股权在京东破产拍卖平台上,原定从5月16日10时起,至5月17日10时进行拍卖。因竞拍过于激烈,“战况”不断延时。


锂盐价格回落,为何锂矿“火拼”再现?


  截至19日14时,此次拍卖已经吸引到20家企业或个人参与竞拍,叫价高潮迭起,围观人数超过75万人,标的从335万元的起拍价已涨至超过5.3亿元,竞价仍在继续。业内人士预估,不排除国内动力电池头部企业、一线锂盐企业参与竞拍的可能。市场传闻潜在有兴趣的企业包括:天齐、盛鑫、盛屯、协鑫能科、宁德时代、融捷股份等。


  据悉,斯诺威矿业之所以如此受到关注,主要是其得天独厚的资源优势,其拥有四川省德扯弄巴锂矿的探矿权。据了解,德扯弄巴锂矿位于四川省甘孜州雅江县城东北部,属于甲基卡锂辉石矿区,矿山储量1814万吨,平均品位1.34%,属于特大型锂矿


  需要注意的是,据“公开招募意向投资人的公告”显示,斯诺威公司探矿权已于2021年6月30日到期,此前已办理三次探矿权保留工作,目前正在继续办理探矿权第四次保留工作,因此,探矿权保留工作存在一定的风险,而且管理人不承诺为意向投资人办理探矿权过户手续。


  既然抢矿尚存风险,同时叠加近期锂盐价格回落等因素,电池产业链企业抢矿热情为何不减反增呢?


  据了解,“火拼”锂矿的逻辑在于,动力电池对碳酸锂的需求量未来相当长一段时间内将维持高位


  从下游市场需求来看,数据显示,受到疫情等外部因素影响,2022年4月国内新能源汽车销量为29.9万辆,环比大幅减少38.3%。下游市场确实在4月偶现疲软,也传导致动力电池装机量同频放缓。


  但值得一提的是,进入5月以来,动力电池市场正在逐步“回暖”。一方面,影响到整车企业产销量的疫情已经逐步得到控制,上海、吉林等区域新能源汽车产业链都在启动复工复产,将带动对动力电池需求量的逐渐回升,预计6月有望恢复到此前水平。


  另一方面,有消息称,国内汽车下乡政策有望于6月初出台,鼓励车型或将为15万元以内的汽车(含新能源汽车及燃油车),每辆车补贴范围或在3000元-5000元。有业内人士预计,汽车下乡将会带动30万-50万辆新能源汽车销量的增幅。


  此外,近日外媒报道称,中国政府有意延长新能源汽车补贴。


  不论从国家“双碳”目标,还是具体到车企的长期发展战略,新能源汽车毫无疑问是汽车业现阶段的必然选择之一,促使我国新能源汽车韧性好于燃油汽车。而且,2021年我国新能源汽车渗透率已经突破10%,而根据“创新扩散曲线”模型,当一个创新产品市占率突破10%以后,将迎来最为陡峭的上升曲线。


  基于新能源汽车市场的韧性和长期需求的支撑,以及国内整车企业复工和新能源汽车下乡政策或将出台等市场利好因素,6月后国内新能源汽车市场需求或将大幅增长,今年我国全年完成500万辆新能源汽车的预期销量不无可能。


  因此,带动配套动力电池需求量也将随之快速提升,继而使得动力电池上游原材料,包括当前影响电池成本波动最大的碳酸锂,在今年下半年或仍将维持较高需求量


  从碳酸锂上游锂资源供应情况来看,澳大利亚、智利、阿根廷等国为全球主要产地,国内锂矿产能目前不足以满足市场需求,盐湖提锂、锂云母提锂等尚未实现大规模量产,我国目前仍大比例依靠进口。


  从碳酸锂价格来看,近2个月逐渐有所回落。数据显示,电池级碳酸锂5月16日报价为46.15万元/吨,相较今年以来50.25万元/吨的高点价格,回落超过8%。但是,与碳酸锂等锂盐价格有所回落表现相反的是,上游锂辉石价格呈连续上涨态势。上海钢联数据显示,近一个月以来,锂辉石精矿从3215美元/吨涨至4920美元/吨,涨幅超50%。


  实际上,碳酸锂价格未出现持续大幅回落已现端倪。近2年,澳大利亚Pilbara锂精矿拍卖已成为全球锂精矿价格走势的风向标。4月27日Pilbara进行的2022年首次5000吨锂精矿拍卖,成交价高达5650美元/干吨(SC5.5,FOB,黑德兰港),创历史新高。包括运费在内以及锂精矿折SC6.0标准品位后,大约相当于6250美元/干吨的价格(SC6.0,CIF,中国),预计从2022年6月中旬开始装船。从锂精矿到碳酸锂生产,加上运费,机构预计折合碳酸锂成本将超过38万元/吨。


  而Pilbara锂精矿今年第二次拍卖将于5月24日进行,预计此次价格仍不会低,且最快到8月中旬才能实现碳酸锂销售,表明锂矿短期内仍难以快速放量,供应不足局面难改。华西证券认为,在供需紧张的背景下,预计Q3澳洲锂精矿价格会进一步上涨,高成本支撑下的锂盐难有回调。依此,产业链企业“火拼”锂矿似“情有可原”。


100 million yuan, 200 million yuan, 300 million yuan, 400 million yuan, 500 million yuan... The "Rush" lithium mine reappeared. The price of lithium salt, which has just fallen for a while, may be variable.


According to the relevant announcement, Chengdu Xingneng New Materials Co., Ltd. held 54.2857% equity of Snowway Mining in Yajiang County on the Jingdong bankruptcy auction platform, which was originally scheduled from 10:00 on May 16 to 10:00 on May 17 conduct an auction. Because the auction was too intense, the "battle situation" continued to delay.


The price of lithium salt has fallen, why is the "rhythm" of lithium mines reappearing?


As of 14:00 on the 19th, the auction had attracted 20 companies or individuals to participate in the auction. The bidding climaxed, and the number of onlookers exceeded 750,000. The starting price of the target has risen from 3.35 million yuan to more than 530 million yuan, and the bidding is still ongoing. continue. Industry insiders estimate that the possibility of domestic power battery head companies and first-line lithium salt companies participating in the auction is not ruled out. Market rumors that potentially interested companies include: Tianqi, Shengxin, Shengtun, GCL Nengke, Ningde Times, Rongjie, etc.


It is reported that the reason why Snowway Mining has attracted so much attention is mainly due to its unique resource advantages. It is understood that the Dechalongba Lithium Mine is located in the northeast of Yajiang County, Ganzi Prefecture, Sichuan Province. It belongs to the methyl card spodumene mining area. The mine reserves are 18.14 million tons, with an average grade of 1.34%. It is a super-large lithium mine.


It should be noted that, according to the "Announcement on the Public Recruitment of Intended Investors", Snowway's exploration rights have expired on June 30, 2021. Three times of exploration rights reservations have been processed before, and the third exploration rights are currently being processed. Four times of reservation work, therefore, there are certain risks in the prospecting rights reservation work, and the manager does not promise to handle the prospecting rights transfer procedures for the prospective investors.


Since there are still risks in rushing mines, and factors such as the recent fall in lithium salt prices are superimposed, why are the battery industry chain companies not less enthusiastic about rushing mines?


It is understood that the logic of "Rush" lithium mine is that the demand for lithium carbonate from power batteries will remain high for a long time in the future.


From the perspective of downstream market demand, data shows that due to external factors such as the epidemic, domestic sales of new energy vehicles in April 2022 were 299,000 units, a significant decrease of 38.3% from the previous month. The downstream market was indeed weak occasionally in April, which also led to a slowdown in the installed capacity of power batteries at the same frequency.


But it is worth mentioning that since entering May, the power battery market is gradually "recovering". On the one hand, the epidemic that affects the production and sales of OEMs has been gradually brought under control, and the new energy vehicle industry chains in Shanghai, Jilin and other regions are starting to resume work and production, which will lead to a gradual recovery in the demand for power batteries, which is expected to resume in June. to the previous level.


On the other hand, it is reported that the domestic car going to the countryside policy is expected to be introduced in early June, and the encouraged models may be cars (including new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles) within 150,000 yuan, and the subsidy range for each vehicle may be 3,000 yuan- 5000 yuan. Some industry insiders predict that the car going to the countryside will drive an increase in the sales of new energy vehicles of 300,000 to 500,000.


In addition, foreign media recently reported that the Chinese government intends to extend subsidies for new energy vehicles.


Regardless of the national "dual-carbon" goal or the long-term development strategy of auto companies, new energy vehicles are undoubtedly one of the inevitable choices for the auto industry at this stage, making my country's new energy vehicles more resilient than fuel vehicles. Moreover, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in my country has exceeded 10% in 2021, and according to the "innovation diffusion curve" model, when the market share of an innovative product exceeds 10%, it will usher in the steepest upward curve.


Based on the resilience of the new energy vehicle market and the support of long-term demand, as well as favorable market factors such as the resumption of work by domestic vehicle companies and the introduction of policies for new energy vehicles to go to the countryside, the domestic new energy vehicle market demand may grow significantly after June. It is not impossible to complete the expected sales volume of 5 million new energy vehicles throughout the year.


Therefore, the demand for supporting power batteries will also increase rapidly, and then the upstream raw materials of power batteries, including lithium carbonate, which currently affects battery cost fluctuations the most, may still maintain a relatively high demand in the second half of this year.


Judging from the supply of lithium resources upstream of lithium carbonate, Australia, Chile, Argentina and other countries are the main producing areas in the world. The domestic lithium mine capacity is currently insufficient to meet the market demand. The extraction of lithium from salt lakes and lithium mica has not yet achieved large-scale mass production. my country still relies heavily on imports.


Judging from the price of lithium carbonate, it has gradually declined in the past two months. Data shows that battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 461,500 yuan/ton on May 16, a drop of more than 8% from the high price of 502,500 yuan/ton since the beginning of this year. However, contrary to the decline in the price of lithium salts such as lithium carbonate, the price of upstream spodumene showed a continuous upward trend. According to data from Shanghai Steel Federation, in the past month, spodumene concentrate has risen from US$3,215/ton to US$4,920/ton, an increase of more than 50%.


In fact, the price of lithium carbonate has not experienced a sustained and substantial decline. In the past two years, the Australian Pilbara lithium concentrate auction has become a weather vane for the global lithium concentrate price trend. The first 5,000-ton lithium concentrate auction of 2022 held by Pilbara on April 27 saw a record price of $5,650/dry ton (SC5.5, FOB, Port Hedland). Including freight charges and after the lithium concentrate is reduced to SC6.0 standard grade, it is approximately equivalent to the price of US$6,250/dry ton (SC6.0, CIF, China), and it is expected to start loading from mid-June 2022. From lithium concentrate to lithium carbonate production, plus shipping costs, the agency expects that the equivalent cost of lithium carbonate will exceed 380,000 yuan / ton.


The second auction of the Pilbara lithium concentrate this year will be held on May 24. It is expected that the price will not be low, and lithium carbonate sales will not be realized until mid-August at the earliest. The supply shortage situation is hard to change. Huaxi Securities believes that in the context of tight supply and demand, the price of Australian lithium concentrate is expected to rise further in Q3, and it is difficult for lithium salts supported by high costs to pull back. According to this, the "Rush" of lithium mines by industrial chain enterprises seems to be "excusable".