当前新能源汽车已累计报废51万辆

　　在日前召开的中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟2023年度会议上，中汽数据动力电池室主任王攀表示：目前新能源汽车的平均使用寿命明显高于行业预期的6-8年，动力电池退役高峰要晚于行业早期预测。

　　2015年，特斯拉以新能源车的身份首次进入中国后引领了中国新能源汽车的快速增长。2022年，我国新能源汽车持续爆发式增长，产销分别完成705.8万辆和688.7万辆，同比分别增长96.9%和93.4%，连续8年保持全球第一。

　　由于早期电池寿命一般在5-8年，根据行业规定，动力电池容量衰减至额定容量的80%以下，就要面临退役、被强制回收。彼时，业界认为，第一批新能源汽车动力电池回收时间大概在2023年，在2025-2026年将迎来第一次回收浪潮。

　　王攀介绍，截止到2022年底，新能源汽车累计报废51万辆，报废动力电池24.4 GWh（24.1万吨）。其中磷酸铁锂、三元电池各占56.6%、39.8%。

　　王攀还指出，2022年，再生利用回收金属量占全年金属消耗量比例在3.2%-7.6%之间，尚不能成为动力电池生产的主要金属来源，钴、镍、锰等金属原料主要依赖进口。

　　数据显示，2022年，动力电池累计装车量达到294.6 GWh，出口量全年累计68.1 GWh，同比增长164.2%。产业规模持续扩大，技术水平持续提升。

　　据了解，在本次会议上还发布了《动力电池高质量发展行动方案白皮书》。《白皮书》中提出了到2025年的主要发展目标。

　　一是大幅提升产品水平，到2025年液态电池比能量高于350 Wh/kg，循环次数高于1000次或12年，成本低于0.55元/Wh，在-20℃环境下容量保持率不低于80%，动力电池具备3C以上充电能力。全固态单体比能量达500瓦时/千克，突破关键材料、电极等核心技术，制备技术，形成面向工程化、产业化的技术储备；

　　二是构建动力电池系统全生命周期的安全保障体系。电芯级、系统级、整车级产品安全水平大幅提高，电池产品发生热失控时，要求整车不起火，安全事故率大幅下降。确保在电芯热失控的情况下，电池系统不起火。建立动力电池安全实时动态监测、预警和监管体系，健全动力电池安全事故处理机制，实现动力电池从生产到退役、回收再利用全生命周期的安全管控；

　　三是构建大规模智能柔性制造体系。到2025年，动力电池大规模制造CPK＞1.67，产品一致性水平大幅提升，智能制造在全行业全面推行，单一产线通过智能化程度的提升，兼顾多规格产品生产，形成产销规模在60GWh以上（加储能约80GWh左右）、具有国际竞争力的龙头企业4-5家；

　　四是构建动力电池回收利用生态体系。强调易制造可回收的动力电池设计理念，加强余能检测、残值评估、梯次利用、安全管理等技术标准研发，制定相关规范。到2025年，培育形成一批具备年回收能力达到100万吨的动力电池梯次利用和再生利用企业，锂金属的回收再利用率达到95%以上；

　　五是构建低碳绿色动力电池产业体系。大幅提升动力电池装备水平，利用大规模、高智能、高能效装备技术，降低动力电池材料、电芯、电池系统、回收再利用等全产业链条能源消耗，基于信息化、智能化技术，推动实施动力电池生产体系碳足迹管理，促进降低碳强度，有效控制碳排放总量，全产业链碳足迹水平做到领先；

　　六是推动动力电池及系统标准化。通过动力电池电芯、电池包标准化和换电电池包标准化，促进提高生产效率、提高产品质量和回收利用水平，到2025年，动力电池电芯形成8-12种标准化规格尺寸，加快换电电池的推广应用；

　　七是构建国内国际双循环的发展体系。以新能源汽车国内国际大发展为机遇，充分利用国内国际两个市场，两种资源，构建动力电池产业发展新格局。到2025年，动力电池产业在全球持续保持领先地位，海外生产销售达到30%以上。

Currently, a total of 510000 new energy vehicles have been scrapped
At the 2023 annual meeting of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance recently held, Wang Pan, director of the Power Battery Room of China Automotive Data, stated that the average service life of new energy vehicles is significantly higher than the industry's expected 6-8 years, and the peak of power battery retirement is later than the industry's early predictions.
In 2015, Tesla led the rapid growth of new energy vehicles in China after entering the country for the first time as a new energy vehicle. In 2022, China's new energy vehicles continued to experience explosive growth, with production and sales reaching 7.058 million and 6.887 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 96.9% and 93.4%, maintaining the world's first place for 8 consecutive years.
Due to the early battery life generally ranging from 5 to 8 years, according to industry regulations, if the power battery capacity decays to below 80% of its rated capacity, it will face retirement and forced recycling. At that time, the industry believed that the first batch of new energy vehicle power batteries would be recycled around 2023, and the first recycling wave would be ushered in between 2025 and 2026.
Wang Pan introduced that as of the end of 2022, a total of 510000 new energy vehicles had been scrapped, with 244 GWh (241000 tons) of scrapped power batteries. Among them, lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries account for 56.6% and 39.8% respectively.
Wang Pan also pointed out that in 2022, the proportion of recycled metals to the annual metal consumption is between 3.2% -7.6%, which cannot yet become the main metal source for power battery production. Metal raw materials such as cobalt, nickel, and manganese mainly rely on imports.
Data shows that in 2022, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries reached 294.6 GWh, and the annual export volume reached 68.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 164.2%. The industrial scale continues to expand and the technological level continues to improve.
It is understood that the White Paper on the Action Plan for High Quality Development of Power Batteries was also released at this meeting. The White Paper proposes the main development goals by 2025.
One is to significantly improve the product level. By 2025, the specific energy of liquid batteries will exceed 350 Wh/kg, the number of cycles will exceed 1000 or 12 years, the cost will be less than 0.55 yuan/Wh, and the capacity retention rate will not be less than 80% in an environment of -20 ℃. Power batteries have a charging capacity of more than 3C. The specific energy of all solid-state monomers reaches 500 watt hours/kilogram, breaking through core technologies such as key materials and electrodes, and forming a technological reserve for engineering and industrialization;
The second is to build a safety guarantee system for the entire life cycle of the power battery system. The safety level of battery cell level, system level, and vehicle level products has significantly improved. When thermal runaway occurs in battery products, it is required that the entire vehicle does not catch fire, resulting in a significant decrease in safety accident rates. Ensure that the battery system does not catch fire in the event of thermal runaway of the battery cell. Establish a real-time dynamic monitoring, early warning, and regulatory system for power battery safety, improve the mechanism for handling power battery safety accidents, and achieve safety control throughout the entire life cycle of power batteries from production to retirement, recycling, and reuse;
The third is to build a large-scale intelligent flexible manufacturing system. By 2025, the large-scale manufacturing of power batteries with a CPK greater than 1.67 has significantly improved the level of product consistency. Intelligent manufacturing has been fully implemented throughout the industry, and a single production line has improved its level of intelligence, taking into account the production of multiple specifications of products, forming 4-5 leading enterprises with a production and sales scale of over 60GWh (approximately 80GWh of added energy storage) and international competitiveness;
The fourth is to build an ecological system for the recycling and utilization of power batteries. Emphasize the design concept of easily manufactured and recyclable power batteries, strengthen the research and development of technical standards such as residual energy detection, residual value evaluation, cascade utilization, and safety management, and develop relevant specifications. By 2025, cultivate and form a group of power battery cascade utilization and recycling enterprises with an annual recycling capacity of 1 million tons, with a lithium metal recycling and reuse rate of over 95%;
The fifth is to build a low-carbon green power battery industry system. Significantly improve the level of power battery equipment, utilize large-scale, highly intelligent, and energy-efficient equipment technology to reduce energy consumption throughout the entire industry chain, including power battery materials, battery cells, battery systems, and recycling. Based on information and intelligent technology, promote the implementation of carbon footprint management for power battery production systems, promote the reduction of carbon intensity, effectively control total carbon emissions, and achieve leading carbon footprint levels throughout the entire industry chain;
Sixth, promote the standardization of power batteries and systems. By standardizing power battery cells and battery packs, as well as replacing battery packs, we aim to improve production efficiency, product quality, and recycling levels. By 2025, power battery cells will have 8-12 standardized specifications and sizes, accelerating the promotion and application of replacement batteries;
The seventh is to build a domestic and international dual circulation development system. Taking the domestic and international development of new energy vehicles as an opportunity, we will fully utilize both domestic and international markets and resources to build a new pattern for the development of the power battery industry. By 2025, the power battery industry will continue to maintain a leading position globally, with overseas production and sales reaching over 30%.