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新能源汽车下乡带来千亿蓝海

2023-06-02

  为了解决农村地区的居民,在购买或使用新能源汽车过程中,存在的充电基础设施建设不足、经济实用车型供给不足、销售服务能力不足等问题,国家发改委、国家能源局发布了《关于加快推进充电基础设施建设 更好支持新能源汽车下乡和乡村振兴的实施意见》(以下简称《意见》)。此政策一出,让万千农村居民可以享受和城市一样的智能环保汽车及其服务成为可能,实现农村与城市的新能源汽车生态平权,也将彻底激活农村地区的购车潜力,撬动千亿蓝海的市场。

  “2023年”可谓是中国汽车史上最卷的一年!如此千亿蓝海市场,谁将力主沉浮?

新能源汽车下乡,千亿蓝海谁主沉浮

  笔者将分成以下两个问题,表述个人观点:

  首先,EV(纯电)和PHEV(插电混动),哪个在农村地区更有前景?

  然后,车企布局农村市场,要具备哪些条件才能抢夺先机和市场?

  尽管PHEV既可以加油也可以充电,不用担心找不到充电桩,看似更符合农村居民的用车需求,但笔者认为,EV的发展潜力更大,原因有以下三点:

新能源汽车下乡,千亿蓝海谁主沉浮

  1、EV是新能源的最终形态,PHEV将成过去式

  因为从技术的本质上看,PHEV更像是燃油车向EV转型的一项过渡技术。早些年充电设施哪怕在城里也不够完善,很多传统品牌不愿轻易放弃燃油技术优势,同时燃油转向PHEV的技术壁垒不高,因此很多车企都推出了PHEV车型,但随着排放法规日益严苛,PHEV将面临无法上新能源牌的问题。不仅如此,因为PHEV使用两套驾驶系统,所以PHEV车型理论上故障率会高于EV车型。但是在农村地区维修店不如城市那么密集,农村居民对车辆可靠性的考虑优先级很高,所以,低故障率的EV车型会更适合农村市场。而且,在消费者更注重的后期的维保成本、残值率等方面,EV相比PHEV也存在明显优势。

  2、政策更加利好EV!PHEV向下拐点来临

  笔者认为:PHEV与EV车型的竞争,也是政策红利的竞争。近年内,PHEV的政策红利或将持续减少,比如,今年上海市就已经取消插电混动的绿牌资格,未来必然会逐步推广到全国。随着PHEV新能源牌照的政策红利退坡, PHEV的免购置税政策取消,或将成为大概率事件,如此,PHEV发展即将迎来历史性的向下拐点。而按目前的购置税率计算,购车价格20万的车辆购置税约为1.7万。此消彼长,仍享受免购置税政策的EV车型将全面拥有这一个价差的优势,而价格也是农村居民最为关注的购车因素。

  伴随《意见》的落地,在农村地区的充电基础设施将快速完善,公共及私人充电桩也会全面普及,未来在农村地区建充电站或将比建加油站更多更容易,PHEV在补能方面的优势将越发式微,相对EV车型的不足也会被放大。一系列的政策,显然更有利于EV车型的下乡。

  3、EV的迅猛增涨态势,将持续渗透到乡下

  得益于EV的先进性给用户带来更优越的智能化体验,在一二线城市EV的销量近乎是PHEV的3倍,更受用户喜爱,而且EV的销量正在迅猛增涨,4月销量前5的车型,EV占据3款!而且,这一态势正从一二线城市向下快速蔓延,《意见》的推出更将进一步催化蔓延的速度和深度!

  然后,车企布局农村市场,要具备哪些条件才能抢夺先机和市场?

  EV掀起千亿蓝海市场!谁将拔得头筹?


  抢占新能源下乡的千亿蓝海市场,无疑是千军万马过独木桥,究竟谁能笑到最后?笔者认为,新能源车企想要在新能源下乡发展窗口期拔得头筹,产品实力、服务生态以及品牌影响力三者缺一不可。首先,从市场格局的演变来看,纯电车消费结构正从“哑铃型”向“纺锤型”转变,消费者越来越不满足于 A00 级甚至A0级车型,需求更高质量、更高质价比的 A 级车型,而此类车型的价位主要集中在10-20万之间,这也是乡镇汽车消费市场的主流。其次,目前农村地区的充电网络建设,主要还是由车企牵头,因此,率先发力能源生态的车企必然会占领先机。最后,则是品牌影响力,不少乡镇消费者认为,产品品质和售后实力是构建品牌知名度的基石,反过来说品牌影响力越高,其产品质量也越有保证。

  在国内一众新能源品牌中,笔者认为埃安是最符合上述竞争优势的。作为新能源领域领跑的BAT第一梯队,埃安的产品实力得到了广大消费者的认可。在10-20万领域,埃安的“双子星”——AION Y Plus(配置|询价)AION S Plus(配置|询价),均为月销突破两万的爆款车型,其中AION Y Plus的4月销量21065台,超越所有燃油及混动SUV,产品力优势明显。针对乡镇地区的能源生态,埃安也早有布局:他们率先参与推进乡镇地区充电桩基础设施的建设,与中石油达成战略合作就是展现“埃安速度”的第一步!更为难得的是,埃安是新能源“国家队”的代表,也是唯一入选“2023科改示范企业”的新能源汽车品牌。在产品实力、服务生态以及品牌影响力等方面,埃安都有着明显优势。随着新能源下乡的开展,相信埃安在新能源下乡的发展窗口期,将成为拔得头筹的先行者。

In order to solve the problems of insufficient charging infrastructure construction, insufficient supply of economical and practical vehicle models, and insufficient sales and service capabilities that rural residents encounter when purchasing or using new energy vehicles, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued the "Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of Charging Infrastructure to Better Support the Rural Development and Rural Revitalization of New Energy Vehicles" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"). This policy, once implemented, makes it possible for thousands of rural residents to enjoy intelligent and environmentally friendly vehicles and their services similar to those in cities, achieving ecological equality of new energy vehicles between rural and urban areas, and will fully activate the purchasing potential of rural areas, leveraging the market of billions of blue oceans.
The year 2023 can be said to be the most rolling year in the history of Chinese automobiles! Who will dominate the ups and downs of such a billion dollar blue ocean market?
New energy vehicles go to the countryside, who dominates the ups and downs of a hundred billion yuan blue ocean
I will divide it into two questions to express my personal views:
Firstly, which is more promising in rural areas, EV (pure electric) or PHEV (plug-in hybrid)?
Then, what are the conditions that car companies need to meet to seize the opportunity and market in order to layout the rural market?
Although PHEVs can both refuel and charge, there is no need to worry about not finding a charging station, which seems more in line with the driving needs of rural residents, the author believes that the development potential of EVs is greater due to the following three reasons:
New energy vehicles go to the countryside, who dominates the ups and downs of a hundred billion yuan blue ocean
1. EV is the final form of new energy, PHEV will become a past tense
Because from the essence of technology, PHEV is more like a transitional technology from fuel powered vehicles to EVs. In the early years, even in the city, the charging facilities were not perfect enough, and many traditional brands were unwilling to easily give up their fuel technology advantages. At the same time, the technical barriers for fuel to switch to PHEVs were not high. Therefore, many car companies have launched PHEV models. However, with increasingly strict emission regulations, PHEVs will face the problem of not being able to be listed on new energy brands. Moreover, because PHEVs use two driving systems, the theoretical failure rate of PHEV models is higher than that of EV models. However, in rural areas, maintenance shops are not as dense as in cities, and rural residents prioritize vehicle reliability. Therefore, EV models with low failure rates will be more suitable for the rural market. Moreover, compared to PHEVs, EV also has significant advantages in terms of maintenance costs and residual value rates that consumers pay more attention to in the later stage.


2. Policies are more favorable for EV! PHEV's downward turning point is approaching
The author believes that the competition between PHEVs and EV models is also a competition for policy dividends. In recent years, the policy dividend of PHEVs may continue to decrease. For example, Shanghai has already cancelled the green card qualification for plug-in hybrid vehicles this year, and it will inevitably gradually be promoted nationwide in the future. With the policy dividend of PHEV's new energy license declining and the cancellation of PHEV's purchase tax exemption policy, it may become a probability event, and PHEV's development is about to enter a historic downward turning point. According to the current purchase tax rate, the vehicle purchase tax for a purchase price of 200000 yuan is approximately 17000 yuan. The EV models that still enjoy the policy of free purchase tax will have the advantage of this price difference, and price is also the most important purchasing factor for rural residents.
With the implementation of the "Opinions", the charging infrastructure in rural areas will be rapidly improved, and public and private charging stations will also be fully popularized. In the future, building charging stations in rural areas may be more and easier than building gas stations, and the advantages of PHEVs in energy replenishment will become increasingly small, and the shortcomings compared to EV models will also be amplified. A series of policies are clearly more conducive to the rural development of EV models.
3. The rapid growth trend of EV will continue to penetrate into the countryside
Thanks to the progressiveness nature of EV, it has brought users a superior intelligent experience. In the first and second tier cities, the sales of EV is nearly three times that of PHEV, and it is more popular with users. Moreover, the sales of EV are growing rapidly. In April, EV accounted for three of the top five models in sales! Moreover, this trend is rapidly spreading downwards from first and second tier cities, and the launch of the "Opinions" will further catalyze the speed and depth of the spread!


EV sets off a billion dollar blue ocean market! Who will be the top scorer?

Seizing the billion dollar blue ocean market of new energy going to the countryside is undoubtedly like crossing a single wooden bridge with thousands of troops. Who can laugh until the end? The author believes that in order for new energy vehicle companies to excel in the development window of new energy going to the countryside, product strength, service ecology, and brand influence are indispensable. Firstly, from the evolution of the market pattern, the consumption structure of pure electric vehicles is shifting from a "dumbbell" to a "spindle" type. Consumers are increasingly dissatisfied with A00 or even A0 class models, and demand A-class models with higher quality and price ratio. The price range of such models is mainly between 100000 and 200000 yuan, which is also the mainstream of the rural automobile consumption market. Secondly, currently, the construction of charging networks in rural areas is mainly led by car companies. Therefore, car companies that take the lead in promoting energy ecology will inevitably take the lead. Finally, there is brand influence. Many rural consumers believe that product quality and after-sales strength are the cornerstone of building brand awareness. Conversely, the higher the brand influence, the more guaranteed the quality of their products.
Among a group of new energy brands in China, I believe that Aian is the most in line with the above competitive advantages. As the leading BAT team in the new energy field, Aian's product strength has been recognized by a large number of consumers. In the field of 100000 to 200000 yuan, Aion's "twin stars" - AION Y Plus (configuration | inquiry) and AION S Plus (configuration | inquiry) - are both popular models with monthly sales exceeding 20000 yuan. Among them, AION Y Plus sold 21065 units in April, surpassing all fuel and hybrid SUVs, with a clear advantage in product strength. Aimed at the energy ecology in rural areas, Egan also has a layout for a long time: they took the lead in promoting the construction of charging pile foundation infrastructure in rural areas, and reaching strategic cooperation with PetroChina is the first step to show the "speed of Egan"! Even more rare is that Aian is a representative of the new energy "national team" and the only new energy vehicle brand selected for the "2023 Science and Technology Reform Demonstration Enterprise". Aian has obvious advantages in terms of product strength, service ecology, and brand influence. With the development of new energy going to rural areas, it is believed that Aian will become a pioneer in the development window period of new energy going to rural areas.