新能源的重磅产品突传利好消息。

　　首先是，上汽集团日前宣布，预计到2025年，上汽集团的全固态电池将在上汽自主品牌实现规模搭载，预计到2026年将实现量产；其次是，宁德时代首席科学家吴凯公开表示，该公司全固态电池有望2027年小批量生产；另外，广汽集团发布全固态电池走过试验阶段、将于2026年量产装车的消息。

　　全固态电池有着“动力电池圣杯”之称，相比目前主流的液态电池，在能量密度、安全性、充电倍率和循环寿命方面都有着显著优势。因此，该赛道的最新技术动态频频引起市场躁动。

　　分析人士认为，固态电池的出货量和市场空间未来五年内有望保持高速增长。据国盛证券预测，2025年至2030年的年复合增长率达65.8%。另据中商情报网预测的数据，预计到2030年中国固态电池的市场空间有望达到200亿元，全球市场的市场空间或超3000亿元。

　　突传利好

　　当前，新能源赛道的重磅产品——全固态电池正密集传来三大利好消息。

　　首先是，上汽集团日前在新能源技术发布会上宣布，预计到2025年，上汽集团的全固态电池将在上汽自主品牌实现规模搭载，预计到2026年将实现量产。

　　其次是，宁德时代首席科学家吴凯近日公开表示，该公司全固态电池有望2027年小批量生产。

　　另外，广汽集团发布全固态电池走过试验阶段、将于2026年量产装车的消息；太蓝新能源也宣布成功研发车规级全固态锂金属电池。

　　国外方面，日本丰田、日产、本田分别计划于2027年、2028年和2030年开始向市场投放搭载全固态电池的电动汽车；供应商企业韩国三星SDI、SK On、LG新能源也纷纷发布全固态电池的商业化计划。

　　上汽全固态电池基于聚合物——无机物复合电解质技术路线。据了解，上汽针对固态电池规划了“三步走”战略，第一代即今年搭载在智己L6(配置|询价)上的固态电池，其液含量降低到10%（传统液态锂电池液含量约20%）；第二代将液含量降低到5%，预计2025年装车量产；第三代将液含量降为0，即全固态电池。

　　据悉，上汽首条全固态电池量产线将于2024年三季度开工，预计2025年下半年完工并投产。

　　上汽集团在新能源技术发布会上表示，上汽全固态电池将于2025年在上汽自主品牌实现规模搭载，于2026年实现量产。

　　上汽集团方面透露，该全固态电池能量密度更高，能量密度超过400WH/kg，是传统动力电池的一倍以上；电池的体积能量密度超过820WH/L，电池容量能够超过75Ah。在其他性能方面，该全固态电池在针刺以及200热箱的场景下，能够确保电芯不起火不爆炸。此外，其适用范围更广，低温容量保持率超过 90%；物料成本更低， 基于材料和工艺的简化和创新，从电芯端到 PACK端，单位成本最多可降低40%。

　　上汽清陶总经理李峥在发布会上表示，全固态电池领域已形成一个新的竞争局面，“谁能够真正率先量产，谁就会占据新的主导权”。

　　李峥指出，推动全固态电池量产装车是上汽清陶与上汽集团明确的目标，现已经进入了全固态电池量产最后的冲刺阶段。

　　“动力电池圣杯”

　　全固态电池有着“动力电池圣杯”之称，相比目前主流的液态电池，在能量密度、安全性、充电倍率和循环寿命方面都有着显著优势，理论上能彻底解决电动汽车目前在安全性、续航里程、电池成本等三方面的痛点。

　　首先是安全性。现阶段，电动汽车主要使用液态锂电池，液态锂电池使用的电解液是可燃的，在发生短路或受到穿刺等情况时，电池有起火的风险。而固态电池采用固态电解质来传导锂离子，不含易燃易爆的成分，从根源上消除了安全隐患。

　　其次是能量密度，电池的能量密度直接影响电动汽车的续航里程。《中国制造2025》提出，2025年电池能量密度达到400Wh/kg，2030年电池能量密度达到500Wh/kg；《汽车产业中长期发展规划》提出，2025年动力电池系统比能量达到350Wh/kg。由于现有液态锂电池的能量密度难以突破300Wh/kg，因此发展固态电池成为提升电池能量密度的重要方向。

　　此外，固态电池也有望大幅降低电池成本。目前在一辆电动汽车中，电池系统的成本约占40%，正极材料则占到整块电池成本的40%，而正极材料一般采用磷酸铁锂和三元锂。李峥表示，固态电池可以拓宽正极材料的选择，这便提供了清晰的降本逻辑，未来全固态电池的成本有望实现40%的降幅。

　　发展全固态锂电池，能够解决当前液态离子电池所面临的能量密度瓶颈和安全隐患，因此成为最具潜力的下一代锂离子电池后续技术。

　　3000亿赛道即将爆发

　　政策方面，《新能源汽车产业发展规划（2021—2035年）》《工业和信息化部等六部门关于推动能源电子产业发展的指导意见》都明确提出，加快固态电池的研发应用。大量相关政策的出台将会对固态电池的发展产生积极影响，推动其产业化进程。

　　基于固态电池在能量密度和安全性等方面的优势，其出货量和市场空间未来五年内有望保持高速增长。

　　据国盛证券预测，2025年全球固态电池需求量为17.3吉瓦时，到2030年，全球固态电池需求量有望超200吉瓦时，2025年至2030年的年复合增长率达65.8%。

　　另据中商情报网预测的数据，预计到2030年中国固态电池出货量将达251.lGWh，市场空间有望达到200亿元，未来市场增长空间广阔。全球市场来看，预计2030年的市场空间或超3000亿元。

　　除了新能源汽车行业，低空飞行器对能量密度和安全性要求非常高，且对成本相对不敏感，也是固态电池最佳应用场景之一。

　　业内普遍认为，全固态电池的规模化量产需要3—5年，在此之前，固液混合电池的渐进式路线更符合技术发展规律，是过渡路线。

　　随着技术的不断成熟和成本的逐步降低，固态电池有望在未来十年内实现更广泛的商业化应用。届时锂电池能量密度可达到500Wh/kg，对应的续航里程约是液态锂电池的2—3倍，追平燃油车续航力。

　　当前固态电池赛道已经处于高速成长阶段，后续需要密切关注头部厂商的突破性技术带来的行业变革。

The heavyweight product of new energy suddenly brings good news.

Firstly, SAIC Group recently announced that it is expected that by 2025, SAIC Group's all solid state batteries will be installed on a large scale under SAIC's independent brand, and mass production is expected to be achieved by 2026; Secondly, Wu Kai, Chief Scientist of CATL, publicly stated that the company's all solid state batteries are expected to be produced in small quantities by 2027; In addition, GAC Group has announced that all solid-state batteries have passed the testing phase and will be mass-produced and installed in vehicles in 2026.

All solid state batteries are known as the "Holy Grail of Power Batteries". Compared with mainstream liquid batteries, they have significant advantages in energy density, safety, charging rate, and cycle life. Therefore, the latest technological developments in this track have frequently caused market turbulence.

Analysts believe that the shipment volume and market space of solid-state batteries are expected to maintain high-speed growth in the next five years. According to Guosheng Securities, the compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2030 will reach 65.8%. According to data predicted by China Business Intelligence Network, it is expected that the market space for solid-state batteries in China is expected to reach 20 billion yuan by 2030, and the global market space may exceed 300 billion yuan.

Sudden transmission benefits

Currently, the heavyweight product in the new energy industry - all solid-state batteries - is receiving three major positive news.

Firstly, SAIC Group recently announced at a new energy technology press conference that it is expected that by 2025, SAIC Group's all solid state batteries will be installed on a scale under SAIC's independent brand, and mass production is expected to be achieved by 2026.

Secondly, Wu Kai, Chief Scientist of CATL, recently publicly stated that the company's all solid state batteries are expected to be produced in small quantities by 2027.

In addition, GAC Group has announced that all solid-state batteries have passed the testing phase and will be mass-produced and installed in vehicles in 2026; Tai Lan New Energy also announced the successful development of vehicle grade all solid state lithium metal batteries.

On the foreign side, Toyota, Nissan, and Honda in Japan plan to launch electric vehicles equipped with all solid state batteries into the market starting in 2027, 2028, and 2030 respectively; Supplier company Samsung SDI in South Korea SK On and LG New Energy have also released commercial plans for all solid-state batteries.

SAIC All Solid State Battery is based on the polymer inorganic composite electrolyte technology route. It is understood that SAIC has planned a "three-step" strategy for solid-state batteries. The first generation of solid-state batteries installed on the Zhiji L6 (configuration | inquiry) this year has reduced its liquid content to 10% (traditional liquid lithium batteries have a liquid content of about 20%); The second generation will reduce the liquid content to 5% and is expected to be loaded into vehicles for mass production in 2025; The third generation reduces the liquid content to 0, which is an all solid state battery.

It is reported that SAIC's first solid-state battery production line will start construction in the third quarter of 2024, and is expected to be completed and put into operation in the second half of 2025.

SAIC Group stated at the new energy technology press conference that SAIC's all solid state batteries will be installed on a scale under SAIC's independent brand in 2025 and will be mass-produced in 2026.

SAIC Motor Corporation revealed that the energy density of this all solid state battery is higher, exceeding 400WH/kg, which is more than twice that of traditional power batteries; The volume energy density of the battery exceeds 820WH/L, and the battery capacity can exceed 75Ah. In terms of other performance aspects, this all solid state battery can ensure that the battery cells do not catch fire or explode in scenarios with needle punctures and 200 heat boxes. In addition, its applicability is wider, with a low-temperature capacity retention rate exceeding 90%; The material cost is lower, and based on the simplification and innovation of materials and processes, the unit cost can be reduced by up to 40% from the battery cell end to the PACK end.

Li Zheng, General Manager of SAIC Qingtao, stated at the press conference that a new competitive situation has formed in the field of all solid state batteries. "Whoever can truly lead mass production will occupy a new dominant position.".

Li Zheng pointed out that promoting the mass production and installation of all solid state batteries is a clear goal of SAIC Qingtao and SAIC Group, and it has now entered the final sprint stage of all solid state battery mass production.

"Holy Grail of Power Battery"

Solid state batteries are known as the "Holy Grail of Power Batteries". Compared to mainstream liquid batteries, they have significant advantages in energy density, safety, charging rate, and cycle life. In theory, they can completely solve the pain points of electric vehicles in terms of safety, range, and battery cost.

Firstly, it is security. At present, electric vehicles mainly use liquid lithium batteries. The electrolyte used in liquid lithium batteries is flammable, and there is a risk of fire in the event of short circuits or punctures. Solid state batteries use solid electrolytes to conduct lithium ions and do not contain flammable or explosive components, eliminating safety hazards at the root.

Next is energy density, which directly affects the range of electric vehicles. Made in China 2025 proposes that the energy density of batteries will reach 400Wh/kg by 2025 and 500Wh/kg by 2030; The "Medium - and Long Term Development Plan for the Automobile Industry" proposes that the specific energy of the power battery system will reach 350Wh/kg by 2025. Due to the difficulty in exceeding the energy density of 300Wh/kg for existing liquid lithium batteries, the development of solid-state batteries has become an important direction for improving battery energy density.

In addition, solid-state batteries are also expected to significantly reduce battery costs. At present, in an electric vehicle, the cost of the battery system accounts for about 40%, while the positive electrode material accounts for 40% of the entire battery cost, and the positive electrode material is generally made of lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium. Li Zheng stated that solid-state batteries can broaden the selection of positive electrode materials, which provides a clear cost reduction logic. In the future, the cost of all solid-state batteries is expected to achieve a 40% reduction.

Developing all solid state lithium batteries can solve the energy density bottleneck and safety hazards faced by current liquid ion batteries, making it the most promising follow-up technology for the next generation of lithium-ion batteries.

The 300 billion yuan race track is about to explode

In terms of policies, the Development Plan for the New Energy Vehicle Industry (2021-2035) and the Guiding Opinions of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments on Promoting the Development of the Energy Electronics Industry all clearly propose to accelerate the research and application of solid-state batteries. The introduction of a large number of relevant policies will have a positive impact on the development of solid-state batteries and promote their industrialization process.

Based on the advantages of solid-state batteries in energy density and safety, their shipment volume and market space are expected to maintain high-speed growth in the next five years.

According to the forecast of Guosheng Securities, the global demand for solid-state batteries will be 17.3 gigawatt hours in 2025. By 2030, the global demand for solid-state batteries is expected to exceed 200 gigawatt hours, with a compound annual growth rate of 65.8% from 2025 to 2030.

According to data predicted by the China Business Intelligence Network, it is expected that the shipment volume of solid-state batteries in China will reach 251.1 GWh by 2030, and the market space is expected to reach 20 billion yuan, with broad market growth potential in the future. From a global market perspective, it is expected that the market space by 2030 may exceed 300 billion yuan.

In addition to the new energy vehicle industry, low altitude aircraft have very high requirements for energy density and safety, and are relatively insensitive to cost, making them one of the best application scenarios for solid-state batteries.

It is widely believed in the industry that the large-scale production of all solid state batteries takes 3-5 years. Prior to this, the gradual path of solid-liquid hybrid batteries is more in line with the laws of technological development and is a transitional path.

With the continuous maturity of technology and the gradual reduction of costs, solid-state batteries are expected to achieve wider commercial applications in the next decade. At that time, the energy density of lithium batteries can reach 500Wh/kg, corresponding to a range of about 2-3 times that of liquid lithium batteries, equaling the range of gasoline vehicles.

The current solid-state battery industry is in a stage of rapid growth, and it is necessary to closely monitor the industry changes brought about by breakthrough technologies from leading manufacturers in the future.