继800V、超快充、城市导航辅助驾驶争先“上车”以后，行业需要新的故事来提振士气，作为没有明显短板、充电速度快、安全性高、续航里程长、被视为电池“终极技术”的固态电池被推到了台前。

　　近日，蔚来宣布150kWh半固态电池包量产下线；上汽集团旗下智己汽车宣布全球首次量产上车“超快充固态电池”；广汽集团宣布完成大容量全固态电池电芯研发，将在2026年率先在旗下新能源品牌昊铂上量产搭载。

　　除了车企外，动力电池厂商、科研院所也纷纷下场宣布固态电池技术的最新进展：中国科学院青岛生物能源与过程研究所先进储能材料与技术研究团队宣布解决了制约硫化物全固态电池叠层工艺的关键痛点和技术瓶颈；宁德时代近日在互动平台透露“公司非常重视固态电池，已经进行了多年的布局，最近加大了很多投入，在固态电池领域处于行业领先地位”……

　　固态电池的消息一波接着一波，量产上车、超长续航、相关概念股一度出现涨停潮。但固态电池真的来了吗？

　　多位业内人士告诉21世纪经济报道记者，从严格意义上讲，目前市场上搭载的固态电池多是半固态电池，仍需要加入传统的液态电解质，与当前常规液态锂离子电池并无本质的差异，称其为半固态电池或准固态电池更加准确。

　　需要注意的是，全固态电池已成为全球动力电池领域竞争的技术高地，中国、日韩、美国均将其作为下一代电池技术的制胜点，试图抢占先机获得一定的竞争优势，成为“未来的宁德时代”。

　　然而，量产固态电池成本高、难度大，部分基础技术、生产工艺等问题仍未解决，短期内难以实现规模化应用，行业普遍认为固态电池产业化时间集中在2027年~2030年。

　　“全固态电池开发难度巨大，需要在高性能全固态电解质及正负极材料，创新极片及电芯设计，高速连续化制造工艺及装备以及系统集成设计等领域开展技术攻关。”广汽方面人士对21世纪经济报道记者表示。

　　颠覆新能源汽车的下一代电池技术？

　　事实上，固态电池和液态电池均是锂电池的分支，差别主要在于电解质的使用，分别采用固态和液态电解质材料，半固态电池是液态电池和全固态电池的折中方案。

　　与目前行业普遍搭载的液态锂电池相比，固态电池在能量密度、安全性和工作温度等方面更具优势，一定程度上可以提高电动车的续航里程、减少当前液态锂电池存在的热失控和电池燃烧等潜在风险。

　　“为什么要发展全固态电池？第一，通过用固态电解质替代有机电解液，可显著提高锂电池的安全性。第二，基于固态电解质的高稳定性，有利于兼容更高电压的正极材料以及更高比容量的含锂负极材料，可进一步提升锂电池的能量密度”。中国电子科技集团第十八研究所研究员肖成伟认为。

　　固态电池的技术路线主要分为三种：氧化物路线、聚合物路线与硫化物路线。其中聚合物是最早实现固态电池装车测试的技术路线，柔韧性和界面接触性良好，与现有锂电池工艺接近，但其劣势在于室温下离子电导率（锂离子在正负极之间游动的速度）低，需要加热到60℃高温才能正常工作，但超过200℃又会发生燃烧，很难符合动力电池的安全性要求；氧化物的离子电导率要高于聚合物，但仍不如液态电解质，且还原稳定性略低，正负极固固界面接触差；硫化物电解质离子电导率高，延展性较好，但化学稳定性差，机械性能差，规模化量产难度较高。

　　目前日韩企业如丰田、三星SDI则押注硫化物，欧洲企业侧重聚合物路线，国内电池企业如清陶能源、北京卫蓝、赣锋锂电、重庆太蓝等普遍选择氧化物路线。

　　纷至沓来的量产上车和落地应用让2023年火爆一时的固态电池概念再次掀起风暴。

　　去年6月，卫蓝新能源宣布将360Wh/kg锂电池电芯正式交付蔚来汽车；去年底，蔚来创始人李斌直播实测了150kWh（即150度电）电池包行驶距离达1044公里；今年4月，率先搭载行业首个量产上车的“超快充固态电池1.0”的智己L6发布，智己方面称其将“突破1000公里超长续航”；太蓝新能源宣布在“车规级全固态锂电池”研发方面取得重大进展，制备出实测能量密度达到720Wh/kg的超高能量密度体型化全固态锂金属电池；4月9日，广汽集团官宣实现了全固态电池能量密度达到400Wh/kg以上，较当前量产的液态锂离子电池体积能量密度提升52%以上，实现超1000公里续航。

　　根据研究机构GGII预测，2024年将是固态电池产业发展的一个重要节点，年内有望实现（半）固态电池的大规模装载应用，预计全年装机总量将历史性突破5GWh大关。

　　“固态电池的安全性好，能量密度高，是电动交通下一代动力电池发展的重要方向。但大多数固态电解质中的离子扩散速率与液态电解质存在数量级差异、固固界面难以始终保持良好接触、与锂金属和高比能电极材料的匹配性等问题需要解决。”有业内人士告诉21世纪经济报道记者，此外也需要大力度推进固态电池产业化发展，除了应用层面，在源头的技术研究更重要，可以从源头上设计更好的电解质，做出性能更好的电池。

　　技术、成本掣肘，产业化前路漫漫

　　值得一提的是，近期关于固态电池上车究竟是创新还是噱头在业内引起热议。

　　智己L6上市前将“搭载行业首个量产上车的超快充固态电池”作为重要宣传点，腾势汽车总经理赵长江在社交媒体发文称“这个时候宣传半固态车用电池的就是在玩文字游戏”，随后这一发言被删除。

　　业内认为，智己L6搭载的固态电池采用固态电解质替代了部分液态电解质，提高能量密度进而提高续航里程，从严格意义上讲是半固态电池，全固态电池不该再使用电解液。

　　这也得到了清陶能源总经理李峥的印证（智己L6搭载的固态电池由上汽集团投资的清陶能源供应），他于近日表示，清陶能源的固态电池产业化分为三步：第一代半固态电池在智己汽车上装车量产；2025年会开发第二代固态电池；最终实现的第三代固态电池才是全固态电池。

　　“目前中国新能源汽车产业内卷严重，各车企宣布固态类电池上车、智能驾驶上车等，甚至进行高管实测，一方面是电池等零部件的先进技术有所进展，另一方面则是为了吸引投资人或消费者而给出的自选动作。”4月15日，车夫咨询合伙人曹广平在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时表示。

　　专家认为，以固态类电池来说，各家的技术路线、供应商以及样品水平并不相同。但总体而言，问题存在于固态类电池的界面阻抗、量产工艺、样品寿命、能量密度指标以及价格等方面，发展程度有所不同，有的还需要逐渐完善。

　　除了基础技术、制造工艺、锂枝晶抑制、固固界面问题等技术难点之外，固态电池落地的另一个核心挑战是成本高企带来的量产困难，短期内难以实现规模化应用。

　　华金证券曾做过测算，以蔚来2023年7月上线的150kWh电池包信息测算，其半固态电池成本约为1.7~2.2元/Wh，远高于同期车用方形三元电芯、铁锂电芯均价0.73、0.65元/Wh。截至2024年4月3日，方形三元电芯、铁锂电芯均价已降至0.465、0.375元/Wh。

　　即便是更快量产、被视为由液态锂电池向全固态电池转型的过渡的半固态电池成本也居高不下。蔚来汽车总裁秦力洪曾在ET7(配置|询价)半固态电池测试时表示，150kWh的固态电池包的成本接近一辆蔚来ET5(配置|询价)，即超过29万元。此外，极氪009搭载的首款麒麟电池包也是半固态电池，据悉其电池包价格也“比一辆车还贵”。

　　“固态电池目前虽然有样品概念的电池，但是真要走向产业化，成本还是相当大，固态电解质的稳定性、表界面的相互作用和系统的集成等方面都有很多挑战。”中国科学院院士陈军认为。

　　广汽埃安电池研发部负责人表示，虽然其全固态电池步入从实验室里走向量产的阶段，但仍需2年时间才能上车，即2026年才能完成全固态电池开发，并率先搭载于昊铂车型。

　　也有观点认为，固态电池在汽车上率先应用的场景可能在混合动力车型，突破1%替代率的机会就在混动车上。

　　尽管大规模量产全固态电池现在看来仍前路漫漫，但在竞争愈发激烈的当下，车企需要新的故事来提振士气以及支撑消费者对品牌的信心。

　　广汽研究院人士告诉21世纪经济报道记者，借助AI及高通量计算等先进技术，可加快全固态电池的研发进度，加速商业化进程。

　　行业将固态电池产业化时间普遍定在了2027年~2030年，目前全球不少车企对于固态电池“上车”有了较为明确的时间表。

　　大众表示正在积极研发全固态电池技术，目标是2025年前实现量产；宝马承诺在2025年前，推出搭载全固态电池的电动汽车原型车，并在2030年前量产；丰田宣布在2027年至2028年实现“全固态电池”的量产实用化，但初期产能不会很高；日产方面称其全固态电池技术可能让日产的下一代电动汽车实现质的飞跃，具有“几乎是现有电池两倍的能量密度”，并且具有更快的充电性能和更低的成本。

　　在专家看来，理想情形下，2027年全固态电池做到能量密度400Wh/kg、1000次的循环，2C的倍率性能，实现百辆到千辆车级别的示范运营；2030年实现全固态电池和搭载车辆的小规模量产；2035年左右实现全固态电池大规模量产，并实现普遍使用。

　专家告诉21世纪经济报道记者，对固态类电池技术或资源的布局，要坚持投技术，测试看效果，发展看趋势。“目前指标好的产品，趋势不一定好；目前指标差的产品，趋势也不一定错，所以要综合各方面情况，做2~3种的子技术路线的参与，是相对比较合理的。比如目前国内硫化物的技术路线开始有所抬头，就要紧跟测试，深度分析，评估结果。既不能失去机会，又要多方把握。”

As the penetration rate of intelligent electric vehicles in China crosses the 40% threshold, the turning point of the automotive industry's kinetic energy conversion is approaching infinitely. Chinese new energy vehicle companies, which are facing increasingly fierce competition and severe homogenization, are accelerating their search for differentiated footholds.

After the competition for 800V, ultra fast charging, and urban navigation assisted driving, the industry needs new stories to boost morale. As a solid-state battery with no obvious shortcomings, fast charging speed, high safety, long range, and regarded as the "ultimate technology" of batteries, it has been pushed to the forefront.

Recently, NIO announced the mass production and production of 150kWh semi-solid battery packs; SAIC Group's subsidiary, Zhiji Automobile, announced the world's first mass production of "ultra fast charging solid-state batteries" for vehicles; Guangzhou Automobile Group announced the completion of the research and development of high-capacity solid-state battery cells, which will be first mass-produced and installed on its new energy brand Haobo in 2026.

In addition to automobile enterprises, power battery manufacturers and scientific research institutes have also stepped down to announce the latest progress in solid state battery technology: the research team of advanced energy storage materials and technology of the Qingdao Institute of Bioenergy and Process, Chinese Academy of Sciences, announced that the key pain points and technical bottlenecks restricting the stacking process of sulfide all solid state batteries have been solved; Ningde Times recently revealed on an interactive platform that "the company attaches great importance to solid-state batteries and has been laying out for many years. Recently, it has increased a lot of investment and is at the forefront of the industry in the field of solid-state batteries"

The news of solid-state batteries came wave after wave, with mass production, ultra long endurance, and related concept stocks experiencing a surge of limit up. But have solid-state batteries really come?

Several industry insiders told 21st Century Business Herald reporters that strictly speaking, the solid-state batteries currently on the market are mostly semi-solid batteries, which still require the addition of traditional liquid electrolytes. There is no essential difference from current conventional liquid lithium-ion batteries, and it is more accurate to refer to them as semi-solid batteries or quasi solid batteries.

It should be noted that all solid state batteries have become a technological highland for global competition in the field of power batteries. China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States have all regarded them as the winning points of next-generation battery technology, attempting to seize the opportunity to gain a certain competitive advantage and become the "future Ningde era".

However, the cost and difficulty of mass production of solid-state batteries are high, and some basic technologies and production processes remain unresolved. It is difficult to achieve large-scale application in the short term. The industry generally believes that the industrialization of solid-state batteries will be concentrated between 2027 and 2030.

"The development of all solid state batteries is extremely difficult and requires technological breakthroughs in areas such as high-performance all solid state electrolytes and positive and negative electrode materials, innovative electrode and cell designs, high-speed continuous manufacturing processes and equipment, and system integration design." A person from GAC told 21st Century Business Herald reporters.

Disrupting next-generation battery technology for new energy vehicles?

In fact, both solid-state batteries and liquid batteries are branches of lithium batteries, with the main difference being the use of electrolytes. Solid and liquid electrolyte materials are used respectively, while semi-solid batteries are a compromise between liquid batteries and all solid batteries.

Compared with the liquid lithium batteries commonly used in the industry, solid-state batteries have more advantages in energy density, safety, and operating temperature, which can to some extent improve the range of electric vehicles, reduce the potential risks of thermal runaway and battery combustion in current liquid lithium batteries.

Why should we develop all solid state batteries? Firstly, replacing organic electrolytes with solid electrolytes can significantly improve the safety of lithium batteries. Secondly, based on the high stability of solid electrolytes, it is conducive to compatibility with higher voltage positive electrode materials and higher specific capacity lithium negative electrode materials, which can further improve the energy density of lithium batteries. Xiao Chengwei, a researcher at the 18th Research Institute of China Electronics Technology Group, believes that.

The technical routes of solid-state batteries are mainly divided into three types: oxide route, polymer route, and sulfide route. Among them, polymer is the earliest technology route to achieve solid-state battery loading and testing, with good flexibility and interface contact, which is close to the existing lithium battery process. However, its disadvantage is that the ion conductivity (the speed at which lithium ions move between positive and negative electrodes) is low at room temperature, and it needs to be heated to a high temperature of 60 ℃ to work normally. However, combustion occurs when it exceeds 200 ℃, making it difficult to meet the safety requirements of power batteries; The ion conductivity of oxides is higher than that of polymers, but it is still not as good as liquid electrolytes, and the reduction stability is slightly lower, with poor contact between positive and negative solid interfaces; Sulfide electrolytes have high ion conductivity and good ductility, but poor chemical stability and mechanical properties, making large-scale production difficult.

At present, Japanese and Korean companies such as Toyota and Samsung SDI are betting on sulfides, while European companies focus on polymer routes. Domestic battery companies such as Qingtao Energy, Beijing Weilan, Ganfeng Lithium, Chongqing Tailan, etc. generally choose oxide routes.

The influx of mass-produced vehicles and practical applications has once again sparked a storm in the popular concept of solid-state batteries in 2023.

Last June, Weilan New Energy announced the official delivery of 360Wh/kg lithium battery cells to NIO Motors; At the end of last year, Li Bin, the founder of NIO, conducted a live test and found that the driving distance of a 150kWh (150 kWh) battery pack reached 1044 kilometers; In April of this year, the Zhiji L6, which was the first to be equipped with the industry's first mass-produced "ultra fast charging solid-state battery 1.0", was released. Zhiji stated that it will "exceed the ultra long range of 1000 kilometers"; Tailan New Energy announced significant progress in the research and development of "vehicle grade solid-state lithium batteries", preparing ultra-high energy density bulk solid-state lithium metal batteries with a measured energy density of 720Wh/kg; On April 9th, GAC Group officially announced that it has achieved an energy density of over 400Wh/kg for all solid-state batteries, which is more than 52% higher than the current mass-produced liquid lithium-ion batteries, achieving a range of over 1000 kilometers.

According to research firm GGII, 2024 will be an important milestone in the development of the solid-state battery industry, and it is expected to achieve large-scale loading and application of (semi) solid-state batteries within this year. It is expected that the total installed capacity throughout the year will historically exceed the 5GWh mark.

"Solid state batteries have good safety and high energy density, making them an important direction for the development of the next generation of power batteries in electric transportation. However, there are orders of magnitude differences in ion diffusion rates between most solid electrolytes and liquid electrolytes, difficulties in maintaining good contact between solid and solid interfaces, and compatibility with lithium metal and high specific energy electrode materials that need to be solved. In addition, efforts need to be made to promote the industrialization of solid state batteries. In addition to the application level, technical research at the source is more important, and better electrolytes can be designed from the source to make batteries with better performance.".

Technology and cost constraints lead to a long road ahead for industrialization

It is worth mentioning that recently, there has been heated discussion in the industry about whether solid-state batteries are innovative or just a gimmick in the automotive industry.

Before the launch of the Zhiji L6, "equipped with the industry's first mass-produced ultra fast charging solid-state battery" was an important promotional point. Zhao Changjiang, the general manager of Tengshi Automobile, posted on social media that "at this time, promoting semi-solid state automotive batteries is playing a word game." This statement was later deleted.

Industry insiders believe that the solid-state battery carried by the Zhiji L6 uses solid electrolytes to replace some liquid electrolytes, increasing energy density and thus increasing range. Strictly speaking, it is a semi-solid battery, and all solid-state batteries should no longer use electrolytes.

This has also been confirmed by Li Zheng, the general manager of Qingtao Energy (the solid-state battery carried by the Zhiji L6 is supplied by Qingtao Energy invested by SAIC Group). He recently stated that the industrialization of Qingtao Energy's solid-state battery is divided into three steps: the first generation of semi-solid batteries is installed and produced on Zhiji vehicles; The second generation solid-state batteries will be developed in 2025; The ultimate third-generation solid-state battery is the all solid-state battery.

"At present, China's new energy vehicle industry is facing serious internal competition. Various car companies have announced the use of solid-state batteries, intelligent driving, and even conducted executive testing. On the one hand, advanced technology in battery and other components has made progress, and on the other hand, it is a voluntary action given to attract investors or consumers." On April 15th, Cao Guangping, a partner of Chefu Consulting, said in an interview with 21st Century Business Herald reporters.

Cao Guangping believes that for solid-state batteries, the technical routes, suppliers, and sample levels of each company are not the same. However, overall, the problems exist in the interface impedance, mass production process, sample life, energy density indicators, and price of solid-state batteries, with varying degrees of development and some still needing to be gradually improved.

In addition to technical difficulties such as basic technology, manufacturing process, lithium dendrite suppression, and solid-solid interface issues, another core challenge for the implementation of solid-state batteries is the difficulty of mass production caused by high costs, which makes it difficult to achieve large-scale application in the short term.

Huajin Securities has conducted calculations, based on the information of NIO's 150kWh battery pack launched in July 2023, the cost of its semi-solid battery is about 1.7-2.2 yuan/Wh, which is much higher than the average prices of square ternary and iron lithium batteries for vehicles at 0.73 and 0.65 yuan/Wh during the same period. As of April 3, 2024, the average prices of square ternary cells and iron lithium cells have dropped to 0.465 and 0.375 yuan/Wh.

Even the cost of semi solid state batteries, which are seen as a transition from liquid lithium batteries to all solid state batteries and are produced faster, remains high. NIO President Qin Lihong once stated during the semi-solid state battery testing of the ET7 (configuration | inquiry) that the cost of a 150kWh solid-state battery pack is close to that of a NIO ET5 (configuration | inquiry), which exceeds 290000 yuan. In addition, the first Kirin battery pack equipped with the Extreme Krypton 009 is also a semi-solid state battery, and it is reported that its battery pack price is "more expensive than a car".

"Although there is a battery with the concept of sample at present, the cost of solid state battery is still quite large if it is really going to be industrialized. There are many challenges in the stability of solid electrolyte, the interaction between surface and interface, and the integration of systems." Chen Jun, an academician of the CAS Member, said.

Li Jin, the head of the R&D department of GAC Aion Battery, stated that although its all solid state batteries have entered the stage of transitioning from laboratory to mass production, it will still take 2 years for them to be on board, which is 2026 when the development of all solid state batteries will be completed and they will be the first to be installed in the Haobo model.

Some argue that the scenario where solid-state batteries are first applied in cars may be in hybrid models, and the opportunity to break through the 1% replacement rate lies in hybrid vehicles.

Although mass production of all solid state batteries still seems to have a long way to go, in the increasingly fierce competition, car companies need new stories to boost morale and support consumer confidence in the brand.

A person from GAC Research Institute told 21st Century Business Herald that with the help of advanced technologies such as AI and high-throughput computing, the research and development progress of all solid state batteries can be accelerated, and the commercialization process can be accelerated.

The industry has generally set the industrialization time for solid-state batteries between 2027 and 2030, and currently many car companies around the world have a clear timetable for the launch of solid-state batteries.

Volkswagen stated that it is actively developing solid-state battery technology with the goal of achieving mass production by 2025; BMW promises to launch electric vehicle prototypes equipped with all solid-state batteries by 2025 and mass produce them by 2030; Toyota announced the practical production of "all solid-state batteries" from 2027 to 2028, but the initial production capacity will not be very high; Nissan claims that its all solid state battery technology may lead to a qualitative leap in Nissan's next-generation electric vehicles, with "almost twice the energy density of existing batteries", faster charging performance, and lower costs.

In Xiao Chengwei's view, in an ideal scenario, by 2027, all solid-state batteries would achieve an energy density of 400Wh/kg, 1000 cycles, and 2C rate performance, achieving demonstration operation at the level of one hundred to one thousand vehicles; Realize small-scale mass production of all solid-state batteries and vehicles by 2030; By around 2035, large-scale production of all solid-state batteries will be achieved and widespread use will be achieved.

Cao Guangping told 21st Century Business Herald reporters that when it comes to the layout of solid-state battery technology or resources, we must adhere to investing in technology, testing to see results, and development to see trends. "At present, products with good indicators may not necessarily have a good trend; products with poor indicators may not necessarily have a wrong trend. Therefore, it is relatively reasonable to participate in 2-3 sub technology routes based on various factors. For example, if the domestic sulfide technology route is starting to rise, it is necessary to closely follow testing, conduct in-depth analysis, and evaluate the results. We must not miss opportunities, but also seize them from multiple perspectives."