6 billion yuan increase in research and development of solid-state batteries, accelerating the industrialization of the trillion yuan market

近日相关报道，中国或将投入约60亿元用于全固态电池研发，宁德时代、比亚迪、一汽、上汽、卫蓝新能源和吉利共6家企业有望获得政府基础研发支持。

　　被众多企业称为“六边形战士”的固态电池，因在充电时间、续航里程、理论安全性能方面的优势，被视为新能源汽车领域内下一代重要技术突破，甚至是“技术珠峰”。有动力电池行业专家表示，产业链上下游加码投入全固态电池研发，或将带动万亿元级别的市场。

　　2027年有望小批量上车

　　固态电池高安全性、高续航能力的B面，是新材料革新、成本居高不下等多重挑战。中国科学院院士欧阳明高近日在中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟2024年度大会上表示，“实现电解质从液态到固态的转变和负极材料的转型是发展全固态电池的关键。”

　　此外，车市睿见还从多家企业的发言中了解到，固态电池还存在生产工艺不成熟、产业链配套需降低成本等问题。如何量产落地成为当前固态电池领域的关键挑战。

　　市场层面，尽管目前已经有厂商推出了固态电池，实际上大多为半固态电池。从液态电池走向全固态电池，最核心的是电解质的改变，这就需要化学材料提升能量密度等，而技术和制造工艺，以及相关的良品率都考验企业的研发和生产能力。在中国科学院物理研究所研究员李泓看来，固态电池一步到全固态是比较难的，有可能要经历混合固液的过程。

　　企业层面，国轩高科首席科学家朱星宝表示：“尽管固态电池具备高能量密度、高安全性和快速充放电的优点，受到固态电解质、电极材料的固有性质限制，固态电池目前性能有限，固-固界面点接触，界面阻抗严重，产线兼容低，生产成本高。”

　　尽管技术突破难度高，车市睿见还是在会议上发现，多名学者和专家对固态电池的发展趋势表示非常看好，整车企业和产业链企业在积极布局。“固态电池将助力交通电动化、能源清洁化，加速第三次能源革命。”卫蓝新能源研发总监徐航宇表示。

　　“目前我国固态电池技术处于产品导入前的技术萌芽阶段，在国家项目支持下全固态研发会提速，预计3-5年内或追赶上日韩水平，预计全固态电池在2027年可小规模示范装车，2030年实现大规模量产装车。” 深蓝汽车科技有限公司高级项目总监周安健表示。

　　欣旺达副总裁梁锐透露：“欣旺达很早就对固态电池等新一代电池进行了布局和开发，目前，400Wh/kg固态电池已经在我们实验室研发出来了，我们会在2026年建设生产线进行初步量产。”

　　不过，梁锐也认为，要理性看待固态电池的发展，“我们做电池肯定不光是要考虑功能性好，还要看它的可靠性是否能够达到商用化的要求，以及经济性是不是能够让大家大规模的去推广、去用。因此，固态电池的到来并不意味着液态电池一下子就被淘汰了。”

　　宁德时代董事长曾毓群也曾在公开场合表示，“宁德时代已经在这方面投资了 10 年，固态电池只有在使用新型化学材料、负极电极使用纯锂金属的情况下才会有很大优势，要将这种电池推向市场还有很多困难。”

　　国内外竞争新技术制高点

　　对于国内企业而言，“国家队”发力支持固态电池将成为重大利好。但对于特斯拉等欧美车企以及日韩的车企和电池企业来说，新技术的突破则意味着新一轮的竞争。

　　在固态电池领域，欧美及日韩企业已经开始“动起来”。2023年底，丰田高调官宣与日本能源公司联手，将尽快突破固态电池技术瓶颈实现量产。丰田目前在固态电池领域拥有1300多项专利，并且在硫化物电解质层面处于断崖式领先。韩国主要是由三星、LG等企业在电芯层面布局，日韩企业比较协同。

　　本田、日产也纷纷敲定量产固态电池时间表，将大面积量产的时间锁定在2027年前后。

　　除此之外，欧洲的BBA，美国的特斯拉、福特通用也对固态电池技术方面加大投入。他们中大多数采取与初创科技企业合作的方式研发固态电池。如福特和宝马投资欧洲著名电池厂Soild Power；通用投资锂金属电池公司SES；奔驰投资Factorial Energy等。

　　可以看到，欧美日韩企业已将新能源汽车的发力点后置，以期在固态电池这一远期技术上提前布局，从而在未来实现对中国新能源汽车行业的反超。

　　国内方面，此前已有卫蓝新能源、清陶能源和赣锋锂业等企业实现半固态电池的量产装车，东风和蔚来汽车等企业的相关产品投入市场。10月，搭载光年半固态电池的智己L6(配置|询价)，将正式交付用户。而广汽埃安也宣布，计划在2026年实现全固态电池的开发，并首先搭载于昊铂车型。

　　在业内专家看来，以应用为本，高性能锂电池的发展之路应多维并进，除对固态电池这一前沿技术开展探索外，同样不能忽视在液态电池领域的深厚积淀和显著优势。

　　可以预见，固态电池，特别是全固态电池短期内难以实现大规模商业化，未来10年是研发的关键机遇期。在这条新赛道上，欧阳明高院士提醒，面对全球竞争，中国应在保持现有优势的同时，积极应对潜在的颠覆性技术，以确保行业的持续发展。

　　他以电动车对燃油车的替代为例，“国内电动车现在对燃油车也就只替代了30%，全球就惊呼中国车要领先了。2016年左右，我国的新能源汽车市场占有率达到1%的时候，全球开始向电动汽车转向。对于汽车技术而言，1%是很重要的市场份额，所以全固态电池的市占份额不需要替代到50%，替代1%就已经具有突破性意义。”

Recently, it has been reported that China may invest about 6 billion yuan in the research and development of all solid state batteries. Six companies, including CATL, BYD, FAW, SAIC, Weilan New Energy, and Geely, are expected to receive government basic research and development support.

The solid-state battery, known as the "hexagonal warrior" by many enterprises, is considered an important technological breakthrough in the next generation of new energy vehicles due to its advantages in charging time, range, and theoretical safety performance, and even the "technological peak". Experts in the power battery industry have stated that increasing investment in the research and development of solid-state batteries in the upstream and downstream of the industry chain may drive a trillion yuan market.

Expected to be launched in small quantities in 2027

The B-side of solid-state batteries with high safety and endurance presents multiple challenges such as new material innovation and high costs. Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the CAS Member, said recently at the 2024 annual conference of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, "realizing the transformation of electrolyte from liquid to solid and the transformation of anode materials is the key to the development of all solid state batteries."

In addition, Car Market Ruijian also learned from the speeches of multiple companies that solid-state batteries still have problems such as immature production processes and the need to reduce costs in the industrial chain. How to mass produce and implement has become a key challenge in the current field of solid-state batteries.

At the market level, although some manufacturers have already launched solid-state batteries, most of them are actually semi-solid batteries. The most crucial aspect of transitioning from liquid state batteries to all solid state batteries is the change in electrolytes, which requires chemical materials to improve energy density. Technology, manufacturing processes, and related yield rates all test the R&D and production capabilities of enterprises. In the opinion of Li Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, it is difficult for solid state batteries to go through the process of mixing solid and liquid.

At the enterprise level, Zhu Xingbao, Chief Scientist of Guoxuan High tech, stated, "Although solid-state batteries have the advantages of high energy density, high safety, and fast charging and discharging, they are limited by the inherent properties of solid-state electrolytes and electrode materials. Currently, solid-state batteries have limited performance, with solid solid interface point contact, severe interface impedance, low production line compatibility, and high production costs."

Despite the high difficulty of technological breakthroughs, Car Market Ruijian still found at the meeting that multiple scholars and experts are very optimistic about the development trend of solid-state batteries, and vehicle enterprises and industry chain enterprises are actively laying out. "Solid state batteries will assist in the electrification of transportation, clean energy, and accelerate the third energy revolution," said Xu Hangyu, R&D Director of Weilan New Energy.

"At present, China's solid-state battery technology is in the embryonic stage before product introduction. With the support of national projects, the research and development of all solid-state batteries will accelerate, and it is expected to catch up with the level of Japan and South Korea within 3-5 years. It is expected that all solid-state batteries can be demonstrated and installed on a small scale in 2027, and large-scale production and installation will be achieved by 2030." said Zhou Anjian, Senior Project Director of Shenlan Automotive Technology Co., Ltd.

Liang Rui, Vice President of Xinwangda, revealed, "Xinwangda has been laying out and developing new generation batteries such as solid-state batteries for a long time. Currently, the 400Wh/kg solid-state battery has been developed in our laboratory, and we will build a production line for preliminary mass production in 2026."

However, Liang Rui also believes that the development of solid-state batteries should be viewed rationally. "When we make batteries, we must not only consider good functionality, but also whether its reliability can meet the requirements of commercialization, and whether its economy can enable people to promote and use it on a large scale. Therefore, the arrival of solid-state batteries does not mean that liquid batteries will be eliminated immediately."

Ningde Times Chairman Zeng Yuqun has also publicly stated, "Ningde Times has been investing in this area for 10 years. Solid state batteries only have significant advantages when using new chemical materials and pure lithium metal as the negative electrode. There are still many difficulties in pushing this type of battery to the market."

High ground of new technologies in domestic and international competition

For domestic enterprises, the national team's support for solid-state batteries will be a significant advantage. But for European and American car companies such as Tesla, as well as car and battery companies in Japan and South Korea, breakthroughs in new technologies mean a new round of competition.

In the field of solid-state batteries, companies in Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea have begun to take action. At the end of 2023, Toyota announced a high-profile collaboration with Japanese energy companies to quickly break through the bottleneck of solid-state battery technology and achieve mass production. Toyota currently holds over 1300 patents in the field of solid-state batteries and is at a cliff leading position in sulfide electrolytes. South Korea is mainly laid out by companies such as Samsung and LG at the battery level, and Japanese and Korean companies are more collaborative.

Honda and Nissan have also finalized production schedules for solid-state batteries, locking large-scale production around 2027.
Image source: Soil Power Image source: Soil Power

In addition, BBA in Europe and Tesla and Ford General Motors in the United States have also increased investment in solid-state battery technology. Most of them collaborate with startups to develop solid-state batteries. Such as Ford and BMW investing in the famous European battery factory Soil Power; General Investment Lithium Metal Battery Company SES; Mercedes Benz invests in Factory Energy and others.

It can be seen that European, American, Japanese, and Korean companies have shifted their focus to new energy vehicles, in order to advance their layout in the long-term technology of solid-state batteries, and thus achieve anti surpassing in the Chinese new energy vehicle industry in the future.
Image source: Qingtao Energy

On the domestic side, previously, companies such as Weilan New Energy, Qingtao Energy, and Ganfeng Lithium have achieved mass production and installation of semi-solid batteries, and related products from companies such as Dongfeng and NIO have been put into the market. In October, the Zhiji L6 (configuration | inquiry) equipped with a light-year semi-solid state battery will be officially delivered to users. And GAC Aion also announced plans to develop all solid-state batteries in 2026 and first install them on the Haobo model.

In the view of industry experts, the development path of high-performance lithium batteries should be multi-dimensional and application oriented. In addition to exploring the cutting-edge technology of solid-state batteries, the profound accumulation and significant advantages in the field of liquid batteries cannot be ignored.

It can be foreseen that solid-state batteries, especially all solid-state batteries, will be difficult to achieve large-scale commercialization in the short term, and the next 10 years will be a critical opportunity period for research and development. On this new track, Academician Ouyang Minggao reminds that in the face of global competition, China should actively respond to potential disruptive technologies while maintaining its existing advantages to ensure the sustainable development of the industry.

Taking the substitution of electric vehicles for gasoline vehicles as an example, he said, "Currently, domestic electric vehicles only replace 30% of gasoline vehicles, and the world is amazed that Chinese cars are leading. Around 2016, when China's market share of new energy vehicles reached 1%, the world began to shift towards electric vehicles. For automotive technology, 1% is an important market share, so the market share of all solid state batteries does not need to be replaced by 50%. Replacing 1% is already a breakthrough."